The Return of the Oligarch

Introduction

The political landscape of the Czech Republic was significantly reshaped following the parliamentary elections held on the 3rd and 4th of October 2025. The results marked the return of Andrej Babiš, a figure who has dominated and polarised Czech politics for over a decade. His ANO party emerged as the clear winner, securing 34.5% of the vote and a provisional 80 seats in the 200-member Chamber of Deputies ². However, this victory was not absolute. Falling short of the 101 seats required for a majority, Babiš was immediately plunged into the intricate and challenging process of forming a stable government ². The outcome of these negotiations will not only determine the political trajectory of the Czech Republic for the next four years but will also have significant repercussions for the European Union and the broader geopolitical landscape.

The election was held amidst a climate of economic uncertainty and public discontent. The outgoing centre-right government, a five-party coalition known as Spolu led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, had grappled with the consequences of the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis, and soaring inflation ^{9, 25}. These challenges, coupled with unpopular austerity measures, led to a significant decline in public support for the ruling coalition ⁹. Babiš, a shrewd and experienced political operator, capitalised on this dissatisfaction, running a campaign that promised economic relief and a "Czechia first" approach ^{22, 23}. His populist message, which included pledges of higher wages and pensions, lower taxes, and a more critical stance towards the European Union's Green Deal and migration policies, found a receptive audience among a significant segment of the electorate ²⁸.

The path to forming a government, however, is far from straightforward for Babiš. Mainstream political parties have consistently ruled out entering into a coalition with ANO, citing Babiš's ongoing legal troubles and concerns over his conflicts of interest ². This has forced him to turn to the political fringes, initiating talks with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party and the newly emerged right-wing populist group, the Motorists ^{2, 22}. The prospect of a government that includes or is supported by these parties has raised alarms both within the Czech Republic and internationally. The SPD, in particular, is known for its anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric, and its inclusion in any governing arrangement could signal a significant shift in Czech foreign policy, potentially aligning the country more closely with the illiberal governments of Hungary and Slovakia ^{2, 23}.

The President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, a former NATO general, will play a crucial role in the post-election negotiations. He has the constitutional authority to appoint the prime minister and has already indicated that he will insist on a government that maintains a pro-Western orientation and respects the principles of a democratic state ^{2, 8}. Pavel has also expressed concerns about Babiš's business interests and potential conflicts of interest, suggesting that these issues will be carefully scrutinised before any appointment is made ⁸.

The 2025 election, therefore, represents a critical juncture for the Czech Republic. It is a moment that will test the resilience of its democratic institutions, the strength of its commitment to the Euro-Atlantic alliance, and its ability to navigate the complex economic and geopolitical challenges of the 21st century. The following analysis will provide a detailed examination of the factors that led to Babiš's victory, the intricacies of the coalition negotiations, the political and ideological landscape of the key political actors, and the potential implications of the new government for the future of the Czech Republic and its place in the world.

The Political Ascent of a Billionaire Populist

To comprehend the political earthquake of the 2025 Czech elections, it is imperative to understand the figure at its epicentre: Andrej Babiš. A man of immense wealth and political ambition, Babiš has carved a unique and controversial path in Czech public life, transforming from a business magnate into a populist leader who has both captivated and repelled the nation. His journey is a case study in the rise of a new brand of politics, one that blurs the lines between business, media, and the state.

Born in Bratislava, Slovakia, in 1954, Babiš's early career was within the structures of the communist-era Czechoslovak state ⁶. A member of the Communist Party of Slovakia from 1980 to 1989, he worked in foreign trade, a position that afforded him opportunities and experiences unavailable to the vast majority of his compatriots ⁶. The collapse of the communist regime in 1989 and the subsequent dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1993 provided the backdrop for Babiš's meteoric rise in the world of business. He established Agrofert in 1993, a company that would grow from a small agricultural trading firm into a sprawling conglomerate with interests in agriculture, chemicals, food processing, and media ¹⁷. Today, Agrofert is one of the largest private companies in the Czech Republic, and Babiš is one of the country's wealthiest individuals, with a net worth estimated in the billions of dollars ⁶.

Babiš's entry into politics was as unconventional as his business career. In 2011, he founded a political movement, ANO 2011, an acronym for "Action of Dissatisfied Citizens" which also translates to "Yes" in Czech ⁶. Presenting himself as an outsider, a successful businessman who could run the state with the same efficiency as his corporate empire, Babiš tapped into a deep well of public frustration with the established political order ²². The Czech political scene in the post-communist era had been plagued by a series of corruption scandals, and there was a growing sense among the public that the traditional political parties were out of touch and self-serving ²⁶. Babiš's anti-corruption rhetoric and his promise to "manage the state like a company" resonated with a significant portion of the electorate who were yearning for change ²².

ANO's first major electoral success came in the 2013 parliamentary elections, where it finished a surprising second, securing 47 seats in the Chamber of Deputies ⁶. This catapulted Babiš into the heart of government, where he served as Minister of Finance in a coalition government led by the Social Democrats ⁶. His tenure as finance minister was marked by a series of populist measures, including a proposal to lower taxes on beer, a move that was widely popular in the beer-loving nation ²². However, his time in government was also dogged by controversy. Allegations of conflicts of interest began to surface, with critics arguing that his position as finance minister allowed him to make decisions that benefited his Agrofert business empire ²².

Despite these controversies, ANO's popularity continued to grow. In the 2017 parliamentary elections, the party emerged as the clear winner, and Babiš was appointed Prime Minister ⁶. His premiership was a turbulent period, marked by a constant stream of political battles, public protests, and legal challenges. The European Commission launched an investigation into his alleged conflicts of interest, concluding that he had breached both Czech and EU law by continuing to benefit from his business empire while in office ^{21, 34}. The "Stork's Nest" scandal, in which Babiš was accused of fraudulently obtaining EU subsidies for a conference centre, led to a police investigation and his indictment ^{6, 19}. These scandals sparked some of the largest street protests in the Czech Republic since the Velvet Revolution of 1989, with hundreds of thousands of people demanding his resignation ^{6, 22}.

Babiš, however, proved to be a remarkably resilient political figure. He consistently denied any wrongdoing, portraying the investigations and protests as a politically motivated witch-hunt orchestrated by his opponents ²¹. He skillfully used his media holdings, which include two of the country's largest newspapers, to shape the public narrative and attack his critics ⁶. His populist appeal, which combines promises of economic security with a nationalist and Eurosceptic rhetoric, has allowed him to maintain a loyal base of support, particularly among older voters and those in rural areas.

The 2021 parliamentary elections saw ANO narrowly defeated by the Spolu coalition, and Babiš was forced into opposition ⁶. Many observers believed that this would mark the end of his political career. However, Babiš immediately launched a relentless and aggressive campaign against the new government, blaming them for the country's economic woes and positioning himself as the only leader who could restore order and prosperity ²². This strategy proved to be highly effective, culminating in his victory in the 2025 elections.

Andrej Babiš's political journey is a testament to his political acumen, his populist appeal, and his ability to weather political storms. However, his return to power is also a source of deep concern for many in the Czech Republic and beyond. His disregard for democratic norms, his ongoing legal troubles, and his potential to align the Czech Republic with the illiberal forces within the European Union pose a significant challenge to the future of the country's democracy and its place in the Western world.

The Discontent of a Nation: The Downfall of the Fiala Government

The victory of Andrej Babiš and his ANO party in the 2025 elections cannot be fully understood without a thorough examination of the political and economic context that preceded it. The preceding four years were marked by the governance of a five-party, centre-right coalition known as Spolu, led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) ⁴. The Fiala government came to power in 2021 on a wave of optimism, with a promise to restore political stability, fiscal responsibility, and a pro-Western foreign policy after the turbulent years of Babiš's premiership ⁴¹. However, the government's tenure was beset by a series of unprecedented challenges that ultimately eroded its public support and paved the way for Babiš's return.

The Fiala government's term was dominated by the geopolitical and economic fallout from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 ⁹. The Czech Republic, under Fiala's leadership, took a strong and principled stand in support of Ukraine, providing significant military and humanitarian aid and welcoming hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees ^{43, 46}. This stance was widely praised on the international stage and reflected a broad consensus across the Czech political spectrum in the initial phase of the conflict ¹¹. However, the economic consequences of the war, particularly the sharp rise in energy prices and the subsequent surge in inflation, placed immense pressure on Czech households and businesses ^{9, 25}.

The government's response to the economic crisis was met with growing public criticism. While it implemented some measures to cushion the blow of rising energy costs, these were often seen as insufficient and too slow to take effect ⁹. The government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, which included a series of unpopular austerity measures and tax increases, further alienated a significant portion of the electorate ⁹. This was a particularly bitter pill to swallow for many voters, as the Spolu coalition had campaigned on a promise not to raise taxes ⁹. The perception that the government was more focused on balancing the budget than on addressing the immediate needs of its citizens created a fertile ground for Babiš's populist message of economic relief.

The Fiala government also faced challenges in its communication with the public. It was often perceived as being out of touch and technocratic, failing to effectively explain its policies and to connect with the concerns of ordinary people ^{9, 31}. This communication gap was skillfully exploited by Babiš, who used his extensive media resources and his populist rhetoric to portray the government as incompetent and uncaring ²². He relentlessly attacked the government's handling of the economy, its support for Ukraine, and its pro-European stance, framing these policies as a betrayal of the Czech national interest ^{22, 25}.

By the midpoint of its term, the Fiala government was facing a record decline in public support, with approval ratings plummeting to historic lows ⁹. The Czech Republic was the only country in the European Union whose GDP had not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, a stark indicator of the economic challenges it faced ⁹. The growing public discontent was palpable, and it was clear that the government was in a precarious political position.

The 2024 European Parliament elections served as a stark warning for the ruling coalition. ANO emerged as the clear winner, securing over 26% of the vote, while the parties of the Spolu coalition performed significantly worse than expected ²⁵. This result was a clear indication of the shifting political tides and a harbinger of the challenges that lay ahead for the Fiala government.

In the run-up to the 2025 parliamentary elections, the Fiala government attempted to regain the political initiative, highlighting its achievements in areas such as pension reform, infrastructure investment, and its strong support for Ukraine ⁴⁵. However, it was unable to overcome the deep-seated public dissatisfaction with its economic policies and its perceived disconnect from the everyday concerns of the Czech people. The narrative of a government that had failed to protect its citizens from the harsh realities of the economic crisis had taken hold, and it was a narrative that Babiš was all too willing to amplify.

The downfall of the Fiala government was a complex process, driven by a confluence of external shocks, economic challenges, and political missteps. The government's commitment to fiscal responsibility and its strong pro-Western foreign policy were laudable in many respects, but they were not enough to overcome the tide of public discontent. The 2025 election results were a clear verdict on the government's performance, and a clear indication that a significant portion of the Czech electorate was ready for a change, even if that meant returning to the controversial and divisive figure of Andrej Babiš.

A Fractured Mandate: The Labyrinth of Coalition Negotiations

The immediate aftermath of the 2025 Czech parliamentary elections was not one of clear-cut victory, but rather one of uncertainty and complex political manoeuvring. While Andrej Babiš's ANO party had secured the largest share of the vote, its 80 seats in the 200-member Chamber of Deputies left it well short of the 101 needed to form a majority government ². This fractured mandate plunged the Czech Republic into a period of intense coalition negotiations, with the fate of the next government hanging in the balance. The process of forming a stable and functioning government in a fragmented parliament is a familiar challenge in Czech politics, but the 2025 negotiations are particularly fraught with difficulty due to the deep ideological divides and the personal animosities that define the current political landscape.

Babiš's preferred option, as he stated in the immediate aftermath of the election, is to form a single-party minority government ². This would allow him to maintain maximum control over the executive and to avoid the compromises and power-sharing arrangements that come with a formal coalition. However, a minority government would be inherently unstable, requiring the support of other parties on a case-by-case basis to pass legislation and to survive votes of no confidence. The success of such a strategy would depend on Babiš's ability to secure the tacit or explicit support of other parties in the Chamber of Deputies.

The most likely source of this support comes from the political fringes. The far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, led by the controversial politician Tomio Okamura, secured approximately 7.8% of the vote, which translates to a significant number of seats in the new parliament ⁵. The newly emerged right-wing populist group, the Motorists, also crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament, gaining around 6.8% of the vote ⁵. Together, these two parties could provide Babiš with the numbers he needs to form a majority, either through a formal coalition or through a less formal arrangement of support.

However, an alliance with these parties comes with significant political risks for Babiš. The SPD is a deeply Eurosceptic and anti-NATO party, and its inclusion in any governing arrangement would be met with strong opposition from both within the Czech Republic and from its international partners ^{15, 36}. The party's nationalist and anti-immigration rhetoric is also highly divisive, and a formal coalition with the SPD could alienate more moderate voters and further polarise Czech society. The Motorists, while less extreme than the SPD, also hold a number of right-wing populist and Eurosceptic positions that could create friction within a potential coalition ²².

Babiš is acutely aware of these risks, and he has been careful to publicly distance himself from the more radical positions of the SPD, particularly its calls for a referendum on the Czech Republic's membership in the EU and NATO ²². He has repeatedly insisted that his party is pro-European and pro-NATO, and that he has no intention of changing the country's fundamental foreign policy orientation ². However, his critics remain sceptical, pointing to his close ties with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his increasingly critical rhetoric towards the European Union ^{14, 23}.

The role of President Petr Pavel in the coalition negotiations is of paramount importance. As a former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Pavel is a staunch defender of the Czech Republic's pro-Western orientation, and he has made it clear that he will not appoint a government that seeks to undermine the country's membership in the EU or NATO ^{8, 25}. He has also expressed concerns about Babiš's ongoing legal troubles and his conflicts of interest, and he is likely to use his constitutional powers to ensure that any new government respects the rule of law and the principles of democratic governance ⁸.

The coalition negotiations are further complicated by the deep personal animosity between Babiš and the leaders of the mainstream political parties. The parties of the outgoing Spolu coalition have consistently ruled out any form of cooperation with ANO, viewing Babiš as a threat to Czech democracy ². This leaves Babiš with very few options, and it increases his dependence on the support of the far-right.

The coming weeks and months will be a crucial period for the Czech Republic. The outcome of the coalition negotiations will determine the shape of the next government, its policy priorities, and its approach to the key challenges facing the country. The labyrinth of Czech politics is notoriously difficult to navigate, and the path to a stable and functioning government is far from clear. The fractured mandate of the 2025 elections has created a political landscape that is both volatile and unpredictable, and the future of the Czech Republic hangs in the balance.

The Ideological Battlefield: A Spectrum of Discontent

The 2025 Czech parliamentary elections were not simply a contest between competing political personalities; they were a reflection of the deep ideological divisions that run through Czech society. The results revealed a political landscape that is increasingly fragmented and polarised, with a growing number of voters turning away from the traditional mainstream parties and towards populist and anti-establishment movements. To understand the dynamics of the post-election negotiations and the potential direction of the new government, it is essential to delve into the ideological underpinnings of the key political actors.

At the centre of this ideological battlefield is Andrej Babiš's ANO party. ANO is a notoriously difficult party to place on the traditional left-right political spectrum. It began its life as a centrist, anti-corruption movement, but it has since evolved into a more populist and nationalist entity ³³. The party's ideology is best described as a form of "business-firm populism," a term that captures its unique blend of technocratic governance, populist rhetoric, and the personal brand of its billionaire leader ⁴⁰. ANO's platform is a pragmatic and often contradictory mix of policies, designed to appeal to a broad cross-section of the electorate. It combines promises of increased social spending and support for pensioners with a pro-business agenda and a more critical stance towards the European Union ²⁸. The party's core appeal lies in its claim to be a more efficient and effective manager of the state, a claim that is bolstered by Babiš's image as a successful businessman. However, this technocratic veneer is increasingly overlaid with a nationalist and culturally conservative rhetoric, particularly on issues such as immigration and national sovereignty.

To the right of ANO on the political spectrum are its potential coalition partners, the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party and the Motorists. The SPD is a far-right party that espouses a nationalist, anti-immigration, and staunchly Eurosceptic ideology ^{15, 36}. The party advocates for a referendum on the Czech Republic's membership in the EU and NATO, and it has been accused of using xenophobic and Islamophobic rhetoric to mobilise its supporters ^{36, 47}. The SPD's political program is a clear example of the kind of radical right-wing populism that has been on the rise across Europe in recent years. The Motorists, while a newer and less established party, also occupy a position on the right-wing of the political spectrum. Their platform is a mix of libertarian and nationalist policies, with a strong emphasis on individual freedom, lower taxes, and a rejection of what they see as the excessive regulation and bureaucracy of the European Union ²².

On the other side of the ideological divide are the parties of the outgoing Spolu coalition. This alliance of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-ČSL), and TOP 09 represents the traditional centre-right of Czech politics ⁴. These parties are broadly pro-European, pro-NATO, and committed to the principles of liberal democracy and a market economy. Their platform is based on a combination of fiscal conservatism, social conservatism, and a strong commitment to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. The Spolu coalition's defeat in the 2025 elections was a significant blow to the Czech political mainstream, and it has raised questions about the future of centre-right politics in the country.

The Czech Pirate Party, which was also a member of the Fiala government for a time, represents a more liberal and progressive force in Czech politics. The party's platform is based on a commitment to transparency, digital rights, and environmental protection. The Pirates are a pro-European party, but they are also critical of what they see as the democratic deficit within the EU. The party's support is strongest among younger, urban, and more educated voters.

The 2025 election results reveal a country that is deeply divided along ideological lines. The rise of populist and far-right parties is a clear indication of a growing dissatisfaction with the political establishment and a desire for a more assertive and nationalist approach to politics. The decline of the traditional centre-right and the struggles of the more liberal and progressive parties suggest that the political centre ground is shrinking. The ideological battlefield of Czech politics is likely to become even more contested in the coming years, as the country grapples with the challenges of economic uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and the rise of a new and more divisive form of politics.

A Precarious Path Forward: The Future of Czech Democracy and Foreign Policy

The outcome of the 2025 Czech parliamentary elections has cast a long shadow over the future of the country's democracy and its place in the world. The victory of Andrej Babiš's ANO party, and the prospect of a government that includes or is supported by far-right and populist forces, has raised profound questions about the Czech Republic's commitment to the principles of liberal democracy, the rule of law, and its pro-Western foreign policy orientation. The path forward is precarious, and the decisions made in the coming months will have far-reaching consequences for the Czech people and for the broader European community.

One of the most immediate concerns is the potential for a further erosion of democratic norms and institutions. Babiš's previous term as prime minister was marked by a series of challenges to the independence of the media, the judiciary, and other democratic institutions. His ongoing legal troubles and his alleged conflicts of interest have created a perception that he is willing to use his political power to protect his personal and business interests. The inclusion of the far-right SPD in a governing arrangement would only exacerbate these concerns. The SPD has a history of attacking the media, civil society organisations, and other pillars of a democratic society. A government that is dependent on the support of such a party could be tempted to further undermine the checks and balances that are essential for a healthy democracy.

The future of the Czech Republic's foreign policy is also a matter of significant concern. For the past three decades, the country has been a staunch and reliable member of the European Union and NATO. It has been a strong advocate for democracy and human rights in the region and beyond. However, the rise of Babiš and his potential allies could signal a significant shift in this orientation. Babiš has already expressed a more critical stance towards the European Union, particularly on issues such as the Green Deal and migration. His close ties with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a leading figure in the illiberal camp within the EU, have also raised alarms. A Babiš-led government could be more willing to challenge the authority of Brussels and to align itself with other Eurosceptic and nationalist governments in the region.

The war in Ukraine is a particularly sensitive issue. The outgoing Fiala government was one of Ukraine's strongest supporters, providing significant military and humanitarian aid. Babiš, however, has been more ambivalent. While he has not called for an end to all support for Ukraine, he has been critical of the scale of the Czech Republic's assistance and has suggested that the country should focus more on its own domestic problems ^{22, 23}. A government that includes the SPD, which has been openly critical of the West's support for Ukraine, could be even more reluctant to continue the current level of assistance. A shift in the Czech Republic's position on Ukraine would be a significant blow to the unity of the Western alliance and a major victory for Russia.

The role of President Petr Pavel will be crucial in navigating these challenges. As a former NATO general, he is a strong and credible defender of the country's pro-Western orientation. He has already made it clear that he will use his constitutional powers to protect the country's democratic institutions and its commitment to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. However, his powers are not unlimited, and he will need to work with the new government to find a way forward that respects the will of the voters while also upholding the country's fundamental values and interests.

The future of the Czech Republic is at a crossroads. The 2025 elections have revealed a country that is deeply divided and uncertain about its future. The path forward will require a delicate balancing act, a willingness to compromise, and a strong commitment to the principles of democracy and the rule of law. The challenges are significant, but so too are the opportunities. The Czech people have a long and proud history of fighting for their freedom and their democracy. The coming years will be a test of their resilience, their wisdom, and their ability to navigate the turbulent waters of 21st-century politics.